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Tropical Storm IDA?

Last post Wed, Nov 4 2009 8:32 PM by Cruz Dude. 7 replies.
Page 1 of 1 (8 items)
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  • Wed, Nov 4 2009 7:24 PM

    • oldtom
    • Not Ranked
    • Joined on Mon, Aug 31 2009
    • Mobile, Al.
    • Posts 26

    Tropical Storm IDA?

    I won't ask anyone to predict where this storm may go, but before I board the Fantasy in 6 days I'd like as much information as possible.  If weather prevents the ship from making one or more ports what does Carnival do?  Similarly since models put the storm past the Yucatan but in the ships path south in the Gulf of Mexico, what would Carnival do for an itenerary that puts a storm between ship and port rather than affecting a port.is the ship fast enough to go around a storm?  Any veteran cruiser to the Yucatan ports had a storm interrupt their cruise?  What happened?

  • Wed, Nov 4 2009 8:27 PM In reply to

    Re: Tropical Storm IDA?

     OT,

    Likely if a named storm is in the region a ship is scheduled to cruise, alternate itineraries are already in place. Fantasy cruises to Progreso and Cozumel. If there is a storm in that area the ship will likely be diverted to say Key West and or somewhere in the Bahamas for example. Check with Carnival often. They will post any affected cruises on their site under "Tropical Update". Unless it's at the last minute, then they'll inform you prior to or once on board. It's all they can do in that situation.

    To be fair they will always try to make the best decision. What is safest for the passengers, crew and the safety of the vessel is their primary concern. If the vessel is comprimised then so are all onboard. I do know Carnival will attempt deliver the scheduled itinerary as promised. Keep an open mind and remember if a change is made, it's for your and your fellow passengers safety and well being. Be forgiving, Any cruise line is at the mercy of Mother Nature.

    Wishing you all smooth sailing.

    CD

    PS The Gulf is a nasty place to get in a tropical storm or worse, a hurricane. I know first hand. Even a strong cold front can make the Gulf miserable for most cruisers and crew.

    CD
    next stop...Triple Platinum
  • Wed, Nov 4 2009 8:29 PM In reply to

    Re: Tropical Storm IDA?

    Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


    Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

    Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

    The forecast for Ida
    The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

    Jeff Masters
      Permalink | A A A


    CD
    next stop...Triple Platinum
  • Wed, Nov 4 2009 8:32 PM In reply to

    Re: Tropical Storm IDA?

     

    Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


    Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

    Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

    The forecast for Ida
    The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

    Jeff Masters
      Permalink | A A A


    CD
    next stop...Triple Platinum
  • Wed, Nov 4 2009 9:30 PM In reply to

    • CUJO
    • Top 10 Contributor
      Male
    • Joined on Fri, Jan 4 2008
    • Maryland
    • Posts 3,340

    Re: Tropical Storm IDA?

    Here is a site where you can track the storm easy

     

    http://www.stormpulse.com/

    The Caribbean Wont Be The Same After 1/23/2010

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  • Wed, Nov 4 2009 9:52 PM In reply to

    • Sue
    • Top 500 Contributor
      Female
    • Joined on Mon, Sep 21 2009
    • Daytona Beach, FL
    • Posts 139

    Re: Tropical Storm IDA?

    Just so that you know, I had a similar situation last summer with Gustav.  We were sailing out of Mobile to the Yucatan and Gustav was heading to the gulf coast.  The week before I kept in constant contact with my PVP (not knowing that she was getting married on the day we were to set sail).  We just got to the point that we were going on the "Mystery Cruise" knew we were setting sail, just not sure where we were going.

    Long story short, Carnival  will do everything to keep the passengers, the crew and the vessel out of harms way.  If need be they might have to reroute the ship to another destination, but it is all what you make of it.  As for our cruise, we were lucky, the Captain took us down the coast of Texas instead of across the Gulf, we had blue skys and smooth sailing the whole 5 days.

    Don't worry ....... go with the flow ........ and most of all, enjoy yourself.

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    Carnival Sensation - May 31, 2007
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    Carnival Valor - November 22, 2009
  • Thu, Nov 5 2009 8:33 AM In reply to

    • hypogal
    • Not Ranked
    • Joined on Fri, Oct 23 2009
    • Posts 42

    Re: Tropical Storm IDA?

    OLD TOM. As of this morning 11/5 it is now HURRICANE IDA. it must pass over land before entering the Yucatan channel near Cancun on Monday. This is the projected track???. I am sure Carnival is monitoring this very carefully and will issue a tropical bulletin late today. If your ship cannot go there will most likely be sent to Key West, if so, it is a delightful place. I was on the Fantasy out of NO last April  that got diverted there because of the swine flu out break in Mexico. If it be that, enjoy the Key Lime pie and conch fritters. Have a happy cruise no matter what.

    PAUL AND SYLVIA.. CRUISIN WITH CARNIVAL SINCE 2004














    SYLVIA AND PAUL..MOBILE
    CRUISIN SINCE 2004



  • Thu, Nov 5 2009 11:06 AM In reply to

    • SCushway
    • Not Ranked
      Female
    • Joined on Sun, Nov 23 2008
    • Alabama
    • Posts 57

    Re: Tropical Storm IDA?

    I am booked aboard the Fantasy leaving Nov. 10th and am anxiously awaiting word from Carnival about what changes, if any there will be.  I hope we are NOT rerouted to the Bahamas/Key West as I have been there soooo many times and did not spend this kind of money to go back there....it's a much cheaper cruise.  But, in the end, I will be on that ship no matter where it goes.  I would just prefer other, perhaps eastern caribbean destinations. 

    Let's all just hope and pray that our cruise turns out just fine...it will be what we make of it and I for one intend to have a spectacular time!

    Fantasy - Nov 10, 2009
    Holiday - Feb 14, 2009
    NCL Jewel - Feb 2007

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