Not to alarm anyone, but to inform those who have a cruise planned to this region. Check with Carnival for tropical updates and information concerning your cruise. Hope TD 11 fizzles out.
Forecast courtesy of Dr. Jeff Masters @ Weather Underground
The forecast for TD 11
The
forecast for TD 11 is highly complex with high uncertainty. Steering
currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and TD 11 will move
slowly over the next two days. The future steering of TD 11 will
strongly depend upon the development and track of the Invest 96E
disturbance 500 miles to its west. If 96E develops and tracks
northwards towards Guatemala, as suggested by the GFDL model, TD 11
would likely be steered northwards later this week, remaining over
water as it approaches the Cayman Islands on Monday. If, on the other
hand, 96E moves due west away from 97E, as suggested by the NOGAPS
model, 97E might also move due west, over Nicaragua, and emerge over
the Eastern Pacific early next week. Another complicating influence
might be the development of an extratropical or subtropical storm in
the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday or Sunday. The GFS and
ECMWF models are predicting the formation of a low pressure system over
the Bay of Campeche this weekend, along the remains of an old cold
front. This low is expected to track northwards towards Louisiana, and
might act to also pull TD 11 northwards. The exact amount of steering
influence this extratropical low and 96E might have on TD 11 depends
strongly on how large and intense TD 11 becomes. At present, TD 11 is a
very small system, and so is only being affecting by steering
influences in its immediate vicinity.
If TD 11 intensifies into
a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, the storm
will probably tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture
will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into
TD 11's circulation, bringing 3 - 6 inches of rain today through
Friday. Heavier rains are likely along the east coast of Nicaragua,
where an intense spiral band of rainfall has formed this morning. An
Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate TD 11
this afternoon to see if it has become Tropical Storm Ida.